On the eve of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, passions are running high — higher than for any election residents of this Commonwealth can remember. This is not because the popular vote is expected to be close — all the polls favor Hillary Clinton — but because the outcome will greatly influence how and when the more than 300 uncommitted “superdelegates” will declare their loyalties. At this point, who wins the remaining superdelegates wins the Democratic nomination. And the superdelegates, along with some ten per cent of Pennsylvania Democrats voting tomorrow, have yet to make up their minds.
Let’s pause for a moment to consider the whys and wherefores of Pennsylvania procrastination.
First, the superdelegates. They come from all over the United States and most are elected officials or local party activists. Many entered politics when Bill Clinton was President and remained loyal to him throughout his tumultuous Presidency. Barack Obama has been slowly winning them over in recent weeks and Hillary needs to stop this trend. The only way she can do this is with a large victory tomorrow, since Pennsylvania’s 158 regular delegates will be split between her and Obama on a roughly proportional basis. (The Pennsylvania result could even resemble the Texas primary, where Clinton won a majority of the popular vote, but netted fewer than half of the elected convention delegates. This is because convention delegates are allocated according to Congressional districts, whose boundaries are often drawn to favor urban areas.)
This is a terrible situation for your average superdelegate, who wants nothing so much as to be on the winning side. Imagine being an elected Democrat at a local or national level and the candidate you support fails to win the Presidential nomination. Worse, most of the voters in your district/state vote for the other guy/gal, who goes on to become President. Not a good career move.
For this reason, of the 795 total superdelegates, 303 are waiting to declare allegiance until they think they know who will win. If they wait until the bandwagon is briskly moving toward Denver, they may have to run to catch up; if they hop aboard too soon, there’s a chance they may find themselves on the wrong wagon. In fact, some of the declared superdelegates (in this category, Hillary leads Obama, 258 to 234) have hinted that they could change their minds, based on Pennsylvania and the few subsequent remaining primaries.
But how about the Pennsylvanians? Pennsylvania Democrats, whether bitter or just frustrated, have other reasons for putting off the choice of a candidate. “The Keystone State” in some ways is the U.S. in microcosm. There’s a populated area in the East and a populated area in the West; traffic and transport moves East-West and West-East across the state, but often doesn’t stop in between. The North-Central region is remarkably rural. And there are many places that seem like they’ve been passed over.
Those who remain in the Pennsylvania heartland don’t necessarily regret not being in New York (or Philadelphia), but many recall better times and don’t feel that Washington has done much for them lately. They feel this more acutely than neighboring states like New Jersey or Maryland (dominated by the Boston-Washington corridor) or West Virginia (leader in pork barrel projects that their aged senator has won for them over the last half-century).
No, Pennsylvanians are a cross-section of the America that often seems neglected. They don’t mind having the spotlight for once turned on their entire state — not just a cross-state rivalry, or a sports team. This hasn’t happened for a while, and it’s unlikely to happen again soon. This despite the fact that Pennsylvania, though the sixth largest state in population, has suffered among states the third greatest number of Iraq War deaths.
So Pennsylvanians — at least some of them — will procrastinate a few hours more. They will vote their pocketbooks — and for the candidate they think best understands how different they are, and how much they resemble so much of the country.