Election 2008

The media are awash with commentary after tonight’s Republican CNN/You Tube debate, most of it tactical parsing of what was said and who looked best saying it. To this observer, however, the real interest in this debate was the focus on illegal immigration. The first half-hour of the debate was devoted entirely to this one subject. Was New York a “sanctuary city?” Was Massachusetts home to six “sanctuary cities” — and a Governor’s mansion where illegals sometimes worked? Did Arkansas give “subsidies” to children of illegal aliens so they could go to college? Each of the top three Republican contenders had some explaining to do before a skeptical Republican audience. And the more each one — Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee — tried to depict his actions as vigorously against favoring illegals, the more chinks could be seen in his armor.

McCain, by contrast, defended his unpopular stand rather more convincingly. He said that he now realized that the borders had to be secured before the U.S. could offer illegal immigrants a deal. As an ally of the White House’s failed plan to offer illegals an accomodation, McCain was the only Republican tonight to mention President Bush favorably. At one point he said he was “saddened” by the tone of the other Republicans’ remarks. The illegals were also “God’s children,” he said.

What this should really tell us is that illegal immigration may be the trickiest issue of this campaign. Hillary got into trouble over her answer in Philadelphia on whether illegals should get drivers’ licenses; now it’s the Republicans’ turn to try to fashion a response that seems forthright without being jingoistic.

There is also the not small matter of how it plays in the Hispanic community — those whose documents now include voter registration cards. As Dan Schnur put it (quoted in last Sunday’s NYT), “a Republican who only talks border control or a Democrat who only talks about benefits and services for illegal immigrants are going to find themselves in a lot of trouble next fall.”

Duncan Hunter may vow to build 800 miles of border fence within six months of taking office, but no nominee will be able to base his immigration policy on simply keeping everyone out. Those 12 million immigrants who are here already, illegally, must either be integrated into society or sent home. How we handle this will tell us and the rest of the world what we are really like. A nation of immigrants — legal and equal — is the way it should be.

The news that Republican Presidential candidate Sam Brownback is withdrawing today from the race is a reminder that the phalanx of candidates on both sides is about to start thinning out. Like characters in an Agatha Christie murder mystery, both Republicans and Democrats will soon start disappearing from debate stages — slowly at first, then after the first primaries, quite rapidly. We will lose several colorful personalities who, for reasons of conviction or tactics, offered some of the more interesting policy choices and provocative comments. Regardless what you think about Ron Paul’s libertarianism or Dennis Kucinich’s social policy, both have made the campaign more interesting. (On foreign policy, their views even occasionally overlap — on Iraq, for instance, or warrantless wiretapping.) Whatever insights (or entertainment) these “second tier” candidates offer, they will be pressured to drop out early in the primary season if they can’t poll above single digits.

Sam Brownback’s problem was not that he was too colorful, but less so. His views on social policy were not far from Romney’s and his views on terrorism similar to Giuliani’s. If you enter the race without national name recognition or deep pockets, you have to cause a stir with your policies or the way you present them. The Senator from Kansas did neither.

Now the NYT’s David Brooks wants us to help a more engaging candidate, the other “Man from Hope (Ark.),” Mike Huckabee, to step into the limelight. However, he acknowledges that Huckabee’s foreign policy thinking is “thin.” Among other faults, Huckabee promises to make the United States energy independent within eight years. Statements like this will be challenged, and could nix the chances of a candidate until now best known for his weight loss. It’s a tough reality, but it doesn’t take much now for a candidate to get voted off the island and onto Brownback Mountain.