Election 2008

Already the presider over one of the longest primary races in recent history, the Democratic party chairman has put a deadline on the fun.

This morning Howard Dean, comparing himself to a basketball referee, announced on the Sunday morning talk show “Meet the Press” that he believes the Democratic party needs to choose a nominee before the end of June. Leaving speculation as to whether Dean’s statement will aid either candidate in the upcoming North Carolina and Indiana primaries aside, it’s clear the many reasons Dean would want to end the party infighting.

Unifying the party in time to beat John McCain is Dean’s first priority. A turbulent party convention in August would leave less than ten weeks for general election campaigning. Both Clinton and Obama, by this point, have been properly “vetted” through the national media, but Dean needs to ensure that both his party and the public view the Democratic candidate as presidential. McCain’s tours—of the Middle East and the American South—plus the lack of any fierce competition for him over many months result in a definite advantage for the Republican.

Dean, Clinton, and Obama have each done the analysis and come to similar conclusions as to where McCain’s weaknesses lie. As of now, neither of the candidates has been able to focus consistent resources to expose and capitalize on the areas in which McCain is most vulnerable: on the issues.

Dean is hoping that an earlier decision will permit Obama or Clinton more time to differentiate issue positions among themselves—we’ve certainly learned of those nuances in the twenty-one debates—but from McCain’s. Particularly on Iraq, McCain is not in line with the American mainstream. His staunch support for the surge, even given his original hesitation of Bush’s plans for war, leaves McCain among conservatives rather than moderates, as his “maverick” moniker would posit. Whether we realize it or not, McCain’s approaches to Iraq and other “textbook” issues are decidedly conservative.

On the other hand, McCain’s candidacy upsets the blue-red norm. As the Pew numbers suggest, McCain is not seen as a true-blood conservative among many of the most conservative voters; nor is he beloved by all moderates given his recent championship of the most conservative of causes such as tax cuts. The lack of definition of McCain’s candidacy is both a blessing and a curse for the Democrats: Democrats have the opportunity to shape McCain’s image, but the later they join, the more time McCain has to define it himself. Dean, in doing his job, would like to stop McCain from controlling any element of the general campaign.

If you look carefully, you can see that Barack Obama’s vulnerability in foreign affairs is not his inexperience. His questioning of General David Petraeus on Wednesday at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing was thoughtful and probing, focusing on whether the conditions set by U.S. commanders for withdrawal could actually be achieved. Obama also correctly points out that Congressional tenure alone is no guarantee of foreign affairs expertise (watching the hearings made this painfully evident). It is even plausible that Obama’s private travel abroad in Indonesia and Pakistan actually may have given him some insights that most Congressmen never gain. Maybe that’s why he spoke out against the invasion of Iraq in 2002 when Hillary voted for it.

No, Obama’s problem in foreign affairs is not his inexperience — it’s whether he will be opposed by supporters of Israel for his stance favoring talks with Iran. As Petraeus pointed out, Iran continues to assist terrorists and insurgents in Iraq and represents a major threat to Iraq’s security. Time/CNN correspondent Michael Ware, who interviewed Petraeus on Wednesday, was particularly adamant in stressing the now obvious point that the struggle for influence in Iraq is essentially between the United States and Iran. Given Iran’s Islamic fundamentalism (at least in its leadership), its virulently anti-Israeli rhetoric, and given Obama’s support for official US contacts with Iran — Obama seems to have staked out a politically vulnerable position. It is only a matter of time before Hillary tries to turn this into a “kitchen sink” to be thrown at him. If she fails, and Obama is nominated, McCain will pick up where Hillary left off.

Washington is still digesting Petraeus’ hours of testimony and interviews, but his assessment of Iran’s activities was impossible to ignore and in other times would be a clear casus belli.

Last October, here’s what General Petraeus said:

“[The Iranians] are responsible for providing the weapons, the training, the funding and in some cases the direction for operations that have indeed killed U.S. soldiers…There is no question about the connection between Iran and these components, (the) attacks that have killed our soldiers.”

This week, the general added that Iran is “funding, training, arming and directing” Shiite Muslim militias known as “special groups… Unchecked, the[se] special groups pose the greatest long-term threat to the viability of a democratic Iraq,” Petraeus said.

Finally, Joe Lieberman asked: “Is it fair to say that the Iranian-backed special groups in Iraq are responsible for the murder of hundreds of American soldiers and thousands of Iraqi soldiers and civilians?”

Petraeus’ response: “It certainly is. I do believe that is correct. Again some of that also is militia elements who have then subsequently been trained by these individuals.”
All this spells more trouble in Southwest Asia and the Middle East at a time when the American public is looking for relief from our foreign engagements there. As Senator Lugar (one of the rare foreign policy experts in the Senate and now about to retire) put it: “Simply appealing for more time to make progress is insufficient. Iraq will be an unstable country for the foreseeable future.”

Lugar’s candid comment had the intellectual honesty of someone not running for office. America is in a funk over the economy and over Iraq. It doesn’t want another four-letter word — Iran — added to its vocabulary of words best left unspoken. Congress’ fixation on withdrawal from Iraq and silent treatment re Petraeus’ warnings on Iran told Tehran all it needs to know. America will probably not attack Iran — not for killing our soldiers nor for resuming uranium enrichment — but Hillary will attack Obama verbally for being willing to talk to opponents of Israel. That’s good politics in Pennsylvania, but ignores the fact that by next January our willingness to talk may be totally undermined by our unwillingness to do anything else.

John McCain has not always been the Republican party’s sweetheart. He was George W. Bush’s adversary for the nomination in 2000, a fierce advocate against the use of torture practices of detainees, and one of the few Republican candidates to take a hard line on immigration in the 2008 primary season. But now, as the party’s anticipated nominee, he campaigns on behalf of the party and its legacy.

McCain is known for his “maverick,” and “straight-talking” ways, but from speech to speech McCain presses on, carrying the conservative moniker. On his recent fundraising trip to California, he received the endorsement of Nancy Reagan. A staunch supporter of the surge in Iraq, McCain’s Iraq policy has come under fire and his positions on domestic and economic affairs solidify McCain towards the right of the American political spectrum. At his core, however, he is a moderate–a label which his recent foreign policy address to the World Affairs Council in Los Angeles solidifies.

In such a world, where power of all kinds is more widely and evenly distributed, the United States cannot lead by virtue of its power alone.

Is the era of Republican realism over?

[America] must be strong politically, economically, and militarily. But we must also lead by attracting others to our cause, by demonstrating once again the virtues of freedom and democracy, by defending the rules of international civilized society and by creating the new international institutions necessary to advance the peace and freedoms we cherish.

When was the last time a high-level Republican politician advocated not just for the support, but for the creation of new international institutions? In just one speech, McCain has brought to an end any party notions of “with us or against us”:

Our great power does not mean we can do whatever we want whenever we want, nor should we assume we have all the wisdom and knowledge necessary to succeed. We need to listen to the views and respect the collective will of our democratic allies. When we believe international action is necessary, whether military, economic, or diplomatic, we will try to persuade our friends that we are right. But we, in return, must be willing to be persuaded by them.

This is likely to be one of many foreign policy speeches the candidate gives as he seeks a win in November’s election, but its diversion from the Bush Republican mainstream is noteworthy. (Granted, he delivered the speech in California to an internationalist crowd, though) perhaps the maverick title holds, for McCain certainly seems to have chosen the Republican road less traveled.

Photo by Flickr user pingnews.com used under a Creative Commons license

John McCain, while bolstering his foreign policy credentials on a trip to Europe and the Middle East, made an erroneous and rare gaffe today.

Iran=majority Shiite. Al-Qaeda=majority Sunni. For years John McCain has worked on foreign affairs issues in the Senate and as a presidential candidate, but the basics are good to have down. As some commentators have noted, if it weren’t for Obama’s speech winning a great deal of free media, this might be on the front pages of the papers. Nevertheless, what a good friend and travel buddy Joe Lieberman is!

Hillary Clinton delivered a major speech on Iraq today, amid the growing sense of crisis in the financial markets.

“The American people don’t have to guess whether I’m ready to lead or whether I understand the realities on the ground in Iraq or whether I’d be too dependent on advisers to help me determine the right way forward.”

John McCain is on a short trip to Europe and Iraq to highlight his foreign policy experience. From the Wall Street Journal:

John McCain takes an overseas detour from the campaign trail this weekend to the Middle East and Europe. The Arizona senator says he is doing it as a ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, not the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. He insists this isn’t a campaign trip.

In both cases, events that could presumably generate significant foreign policy press–and therefore discussion–have been overshadowed by the concern foremost on Americans’ minds: the economy.

News of the buyout of Bear Stearns echoed throughout Wall Street and international markets. The news of the weakening dollar and likelihood that the U.S. is in a recession filtered through the national news.

In what was expected to be the foreign policy election, voters are increasingly finding the economy to be their foremost concern. At this point in the process, very few have changed their story to: “it’s Iraq, stupid.”