Who has not seen the photo?  The 34th President, a haberdasher from small-town Missouri, beams from ear to ear as he holds up the early edition of the Chicago Tribune.  “Dewey Defeats Truman,” the headline proclaims, but the headline is wrong, as the world now knows, and Harry S Truman (no period after the “S,” please) retains the office and burdens that he inherited when FDR died.

That was sixty years ago this week, but the photo still compels our attention as a hard lesson in democracy, journalism and the stubborn unpredictability of human events.

Dewey had several advantages:  he was a well-known governor of a major state (”executive experience,” we’d call it today) and the media liked him (he was endorsed by the New York Times).  Truman had the advantage of incumbency, but compared to the beloved FDR, he was not a popular leader and would become even less so.  His 23 per cent approval rating set a record that would stand until George W. Bush broke it a few months ago.

In addition, Dewey was eloquent and well-spoken, a Republican when most Americans seemed to have grown tired of 16 years of Democratic rule.  Truman was blunt and frequently off-color, which offended much of the population.

Yet Truman won, giving hope to every trailing campaign since then, and worrying journalists, prognosticators and candidates in the lead.

Now is the time, whether you support Obama or McCain, to pull out this photo.  It should motivate your efforts.  “Give ‘em Hell, Harry!” is what Truman's supporters cried, as they urged him on to victory.  You could try the same exhortation, except that “giving Hell” was introduced into this campaign a long time ago.  Try something else, just vote.