Election 2008

Over at Climate Change, I’ve been looking at Al Gore’s audacious but feasible goal of reaching 100% of electrical generation in ten years.  There are comments at my last post on this from the candidates.  Stop by to see.

Berlin is filled with historical backdrops well-adapted to political choreography. If the German press is correct, on Thursday evening Berlin’s Siegessaeule (Victory Column) will be the backdrop for a public speech by Barack Obama. Cameras will be rolling and thousands of enthusiastic and curious Germans will come to the large public space along June 17th Street between the Column and the Brandenburg Gate that has come be known as the Fan Meile. This is where thousands of soccer enthusiasts gathered during Germany’s World Cup in 2006 and watched games on huge outdoor screens. The largest screens were at the Eastern, Brandenburg Gate side of the Meile. This time, however, the crowds will be pointed westward, toward the golden Column — reportedly because Chancellor Angela Merkel did not like the idea of candidate Obama using the Brandenburg Gate as backdrop.

Just as well. The Brandenburger Tor is by now so identified with Reagan’s “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” speech that the next-day commentary would have been more about comparing Obama to Reagan than to John McCain. Obama will need to come with his own memorable line without the backdrop of a Berlin Wall to help the make the point about freedom or Communist repression. After all, the Siegessaeule is all about 19th Century Prussian empire-building, although topped by a rather benevolent-looking angel.

The angels of political fortune seem to be looking down on Obama so far this trip — and the U.S.’ media angels seem to be following suit. Maliki’s open support for Obama’s withdrawal timetable was followed by the NYT declaring that Obama had thereby gained “a measure of credibility as a prospective world leader…” Not even Katie Couric seems to have gotten Obama off his game.

Back in the U.S., it’s still very early in the campaign — the candidates are not even nominees yet. And the polls are still quite close. But for McCain to be successful, he has to start having better weeks. One senses among Republicans a certain frustration that leads to exhortations to the party faithful such as the one seen here. $11 is less than even the average donation to Obama. What happened to the party of power?

For the first time, Barack Obama is traveling abroad as a Presidential candidate and, for the first time, the foreign travel of a major Presidential candidate is seen as having a significant bearing on how the world regards the United States.

So here we have, finally, a topic that belongs equally under our headings “Election 2008” and “Public Diplomacy and the 2008 Elections.”

More to the point, this trip may have equal and considerable influence on the election outcome and the course of foreign opinion regarding the United States.

Obama’s visit to Afghanistan today got him beyond Kabul to a sensitive eastern region and seems to have included substantive talks with local political leaders. Obama carefully notes that he is traveling as “a Senator….not the President,” avoiding potential criticism for usurping the President’s role. He praises the performance of U.S. military and will seek the views of military commanders on the ground, laying down another necessary political marker.

Then he goes on to Iraq, Jordan, Israel, Germany, France and the U.K. Exact timing and sequence is of course under wraps, but with this itinerary and the meetings and events attached to it, Obama can demonstrate a seriousness of purpose on issues where the American public until now has regarded John McCain as more competent – and where foreign publics regard the current American administration as inadequate.

Some U.S. commentators have speculated that Obama may rile the American public by seeming to be campaigning before non-voting foreign audiences. But would it be so bad for a candidate to leave a foreign country with its population feeling better toward the United States than before he arrived? So long as Obama does not appear to – God forbid – “pander” to foreign audiences or governments, he should do himself and the U.S. image overseas some good.

Substantively, Obama’s travels take place at a time when foreign policy issues in the election seem to be moving in his direction. In Iraq, the Maliki government has pretty much forced the Bush Administration to accept the idea of a kind of timetable for the reduction of the U.S. military presence. With Iran, the Administration allowed State Department Undersecretary for Political Affairs Bill Burns to attend a meeting in Geneva with a senior Iranian official.

Obama may not get to speak in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, as Reagan did, but I can say, having lived in Berlin during a fair portion of the current Administration, that Germans will express great interest and approval for Obama at whatever venue is ultimately selected. For Obama, it’s time for, if not “straight talk,” then “state talk.”

The media and their message are all focused on Barack Obama’s policy tour of Europe, Israel and Southwest Asia. There has never been anything quite like this build up for a Presidential candidate.
The NYT advances the trip with an article today reviewing Obama’s 300-person foreign policy brain trust. Slate carries a piece noting that the media entourage will include all three network anchors — who will have their own individual nightly newscast interviews, one-on-one with the future Democratic nominee, three nights running.

All the hubub threatens to drown out and trivialize what is a serious effort by Obama to focus attention on policy issues and to introduce himself foreign publics.

The timing could not be better for Obama. The Bush Administration has signaled a shift in Iran policy toward greater diplomatic engagement with Teheran. This is just what Obama has been arguing for.

Likewise, news reports from Afghanistan appear to indicate more difficulties for U.S., NATO and Afghan forces, with U.S. military acknowledging that they cannot increase U.S. forces there due to deployments in Iraq. This has been precisely what Obama has been warning against.

McCain’s team will undoubtedly try to depict the Tour as a kind of media circus but unless Obama commits a gaffe in public, there’s not much to be gained.

Obama is actually doing the sorts of things that McCain has accused him of not doing enough of.