“Change for the better”
President Bush, it seems, has been a lame duck for months. In addition to the blogs following his activities on his road back to Crawford, the President’s polling numbers are excruciatingly low–68 percent of Americans disapprove of the Bush Presidency, higher than any other disapproval ratings Gallup has ever tracked (they’ve been measuring since 1938).
The good news rests on the side of the (now determined) general election contenders. According to the newest ABC/Washington Post poll, Obama and McCain are all of four percentage points apart (48 to 42, Obama). Obama attracts those in search of new ideas and a new direction (82 to McCain’s 10 percent). McCain supporters believe strength and experience to be most important in a candidate. The contest will get into full swing after the conventions this summer, and Americans from both persuasions will choose their candidate.
Those watching abroad seem to have chosen theirs already. The most recent Pew study reports high interest in the election abroad, not to mention strong preferences among the leading candidates.
People around the world who have been paying attention to the American election express more confidence in Barack Obama than in John McCain to do the right thing regarding world affairs. McCain is rated lower than Obama in every country surveyed, except for the United States where his rating matches Obama’s, as well as in Jordan and Pakistan where few people have confidence in either candidate.
Obama’s advantage over McCain is overwhelming in the Western European countries surveyed: Fully 84% of the French who have been following the election say they have confidence in Obama to do the right thing regarding world affairs, compared with 33% who say that about McCain. The differences in ratings for Obama and McCain are about as large in Spain and Germany, and are only somewhat narrower in Great Britain.
Along with the prospects of a new US President, foreigners are gaining confidence in the overall image of the US.
The survey finds a widespread belief that U.S. foreign policy “will change for the better” after the inauguration of a new American president next year. Among people who have been following the election, large majorities in France (68%), Spain (67%) and Germany (64%) say that they believe that U.S. foreign policy will improve after the election. This sentiment is also common in the African countries included in the survey - Nigeria (67%), South Africa (66%) and Tanzania (65%).
Many of the Muslim countries don’t see improvements happening at all: “In Jordan and Egypt, more people who are following the election say they expect new leadership to change U.S. foreign policy for the worse than say they expect a change for the better.”
The next President, whomever he is, will look for public support at home and abroad, and will have to compete against predetermined biases.