The Greening of the GOP
Expensive oil is here to stay — and so are the effects of climate change. These two realities are altering American economic choices and attitudes, and thus the views of candidates running for office. Consider, for example, how the Bush Administration has evolved from trying to defeat environmentalists to trying to co-opt their agenda. Last week, the Administration let slip that it plans to declare a huge area of territorial waters an environmental preserve — something unimaginable seven years ago. Bush himself has gone from obstructionist to agnostic to near-activist on climate change issues in the course of the last two years.
But look also at John McCain. His platform on climate change is far more activist than that advocated by most Republican candidates for President just a few months ago. The Republican National Committee, as part of its support-McCain effort, invites Web users to not only donate money to McCain’s campaign, but asks them to sign an “environmental pledge” to do some things not usually associated with Republican behavior, such as pledging to “start a carpool” or “take mass transit.” At McCain’s campaign Website, you can buy “eco-friendly items” such as green-colored T-shirts (“bio-degradable and antibacterial”(!)).
This is a remarkable change in tone and message that will increasingly be linked by McCain to energy independence and national security. This is how he put it in a speech on May 12 at a Vestas wind-power center in Portland, Oregon:
“Our economy depends upon clean and affordable alternatives to fossil fuels, and so, in many ways, does our security. A large share of the world’s oil reserves is controlled by foreign powers that do not have our interests at heart. And as our reliance on oil passes away, their power will vanish with it.”
This is not an original insight, but it does have more credibility coming from a Senator from oil-scarce Arizona than from a President whose family built its fortune on oil drilling in Texas. McCain’s Senate record on environment and energy conservation is mixed: he was quick to recognize the reality of global warming and opposes oil drilling in ANWR, but has gotten fairly low ratings from environmental groups over the years.
As Americans suddenly discard their SUVs when faced with $4 per gallon gasoline, the most salient foreign policy-linked issue in the minds of American voters this summer is likely to be what can be done about high gas prices and their impact throughout the economy. Convince most Americans that you have a real plan to bring down the price of energy — and not just punish Exxon/Mobil and Chevron for their record profits — and you stand a good chance of being elected President.
So far in this campaign, McCain has been the candidate most sensitive to Americans’ worries about oil prices. His proposed federal gas tax holiday was predictably copied by Hillary and properly condemned by Obama — but it did show that McCain knew what was on the public’s mind.
Both Democrats and Republicans seem to understand that a laissez faire approach to energy markets, conservation and environment is now untenable. On the other hand, just reduce the cost of gasoline significantly and Americans will go back to driving SUVs that Detroit will happily manufacture for them. The challenge is to find the right mix of market-based incentives to innovation and more efficient energy use, while penalizing polluters and energy wasters. This is the kind of activist approach that Democrats seem more comfortable with, although both parties should be reproached for the relatively puny efforts by Washington over the last thirty years to achieve the energy security. When McCain spoke about wind power facility in Oregon he failed to mention that the company — Vestas — is actually Danish-owned, not American.
As Republicans turn green, both Obama and McCain will be running against the “failed policies” — or lack of them — in the area of energy planning, conservation, and environment in this and previous Administrations. However, since the solutions that McCain and Obama offer may resemble each other quite a bit, the election could hinge on whether voters, on this like other issues, decide to punish McCain for being a Republican or reward him for leading his party in a new direction.