Actually, No Change at All
The cover story to the March 27 issue of the Economist is titled “All change?”. After it’s extensive analysis and polling, the magazine clearly does not foresee any significant or sudden changes to American foreign policy come January ‘09. (If you haven’t yet read bits of the “special report,” I do encourage it.)
At its core, the piece offers a dose of realism to its non-American readers:
in a world that is still Hobbesian, the country that is for now still the world’s sole superpower is going to continue to put its own interests first….America relies on itself. The instinct of the next president will be no different.
Deep down, even American Democrats recognize this. Senate passage of an internationally-popular Kyoto Treaty or an ICC signatory in recent political climates seems unlikely. Even given Democratic majorities in both Houses since January of last year, with the exception of a timed withdrawal from Iraq, Pelosi and Reid have not brought many internationally-minded initiatives to the forefront of the docket. While one may argue the Democratic Leadership avoided such risk knowing that President Bush would strike down the legislation with his veto, chances are that any bold legislation would have difficulty passing both Houses–the Senate in particular–nonetheless.
That said, with full White House support and Republican majorities in Congress, CAFTA was passed and signed in 2004, though polling showed that only a slim majority of Americans supported the legislation. Bush and his allies worked the bill through the system of Congress. Practices for a new President would have to be similar; it’s unlikely that American public opinion will be largely in favor of policies that international counterparts favor.