Potomac (Primary) Fever
As Democrats prepare for tomorrow’s votes in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia, the spinmeisters are at it again. James Carville, a Hillary supporter and a familiar face of punditry, is trying out the following line of argument today on CNN: Forget the votes between now and March. Unless Obama can win Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Carville says Democratic superdelegates will conclude that he cannot deliver “a knockout punch,” and will have to swing their support to Clinton.
This is a beguiling tactic and a tacit admission that the Clinton campaign expects mainly losses between now and March 4 (the date for the primaries in Texas and Ohio — Pennsylvania’s is April 22).
Playing into this is the just-announced CNN Clinton-Obama debate — for Austin, Texas on February 21. Hillary will now try hard to keep the focus on Texas in particular, given her strength so far with Hispanic voters. (Univision, the Spanish-language broadcaster, will co-sponsor this debate with simultaneous Spanish translation.)
Keep in mind Obama’s showing on February 5 in California, where according to latest analyses, Latinos went 2 to 1 for Hillary. In Texas, Latinos may be as much as a quarter of the Democratic electorate.
Meanwhile, even though Obama has won the last five state-level contests, he has only barely pulled even — or slightly passed — Hillary’s delegate total. This is mainly due to the proportionality rule that gives losers a share of a state’s delegates, but is also due to the greater support that Hillary has so far among the superdelegates. That’s why Carville is trying to influence their direction now.
For an interesting history of how the Democrats came to their current apportionment scheme, read this article in the SF Chronicle.