California Calculations (Cálculos de California)
San Francisco — Everyone repeats the importance of California in this election year, and it’s easy to understand why. The large number of convention delegates at stake for both parties, the huge number of Electoral College votes gained by the winner of the popular vote in November, and the media and financial power of this state cannot be overlooked. In an earlier post (“California Scenesetter,” 1/31/08), I recounted the way that today’s Democratic primary vote will affect the selection of convention delegates.
Here it is, once again, in brief: In both parties’ primaries, there are essentially 53 races — one for each Congressional District. The winner in each District gets a certain number of delegates; some delegates are awarded by state-wide vote tallies; then there are the so-called Super Delegates — elected officials, party officials, etc. You get the picture. If California yields statewide vote totals that don’t correspond to the division of delegates — possible only in the Democratic race — then many Californians will be frustrated. Shades of the presidential vote in November, 2000.
But that’s not the only calculation that could give us a headache tomorrow. Up to half of California voters vote early, by mail. That means ballots will be opened today that may have been cast as early as January 7th (before the New Hampshire primary!), when Biden, Richardson, Kucinich, Edwards and Dodd were still in the running (and, on the Republican side, Thompson and Giuliani). What if, as one local columnist notes, something in the course of the last four weeks caused you to change your mind?
Then there’s “Decline to State.” Here in California, only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican primary, but those who “decline to state” a party affiliation can vote for a Democratic candidate. That’s almost 20 per cent of all registered voters. Will the Democrats wind up regretting that they let independents vote in their primary? Will Republicans regret that they didn’t let independents vote in theirs?
But the largest calculation, the one no one quite has a handle on, is the Hispanic or Latino vote. One third of California’s population is Hispanic — one of every five registered voters. Only 6.4 per cent of the population is African-American. The early Clinton advantage in California had much to do with the loyalty of Latinos to Bill Clinton. The durability of that advantage, despite recent polls, owes much to the backing of key politicians in the Hispanic community — including political powerhouses Los Angeles Mayor Villaraigosa and California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez. Granted, the leading Hispanic newspaper in this state, La Opinión, endorsed Obama, but can this possibly be enough?
The Nevada caucuses showed that Obama could gain impressive endorsements, yet fail due to lack of support in the Hispanic community. The Clinton campaign must be counting on this. That’s where Bill and Hillary devoted enormous time and attention in recent days.