Election 2008

It is only hours away from the first caucuses of the nominating process, and all eyes are on Iowa; the first real trial in the campaign. Never mind that Iowa is only the first in a rapid succession of tests for the candidates, campaign spending is record-breaking; some estimates show nearly $400 per caucus-goer. In keeping with the spirit of the media and campaign frenzy, the following are some of the noteworthy issues to watch on January 3rd.

• On the Democratic side, the race is tight between Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. What will be even more significant than the victor among the top three, will be the support that each of the so-called second tier candidates receive. The sequence with which they fall behind the leaders will send an early sign to supporters and donors, which will begin a trickle effect leading to some candidates’ retirement from the race.
• Estimates say that only 5 percent of caucus-goers were undecided as of the 2nd. Although they are few, what independent voters do in Iowa is a sign of how indies will vote in the rest of the country and in New Hampshire, the next primary on the docket.
• Mike Huckabee has made a comeback due in large part to his support from evangelical Republican voters. Will their voting power be strong enough to overtake the conservative Mitt Romney in the caucuses?
• John McCain had nearly given up on Iowa just a few weeks ago. Then, he received several high profile endorsements from major papers in the state and, suddenly, he was back in the mix. While he’s been focusing much of his efforts in New Hampshire, a good showing in Iowa could do wonders for the McCain campaign in other midwestern and western states.

While Iowa may be first, it’s certainly not the last state that matters, and after this evening, there will be much more to come. Iowans have to be relieved that after tomorrow the media blitz will cease, but for the politicos watching the show is just getting started.

Tomorrow in Iowa the campaign becomes real. No longer will the question of who’s ahead be determined by a poll, but instead by real votes by real people. Granted, the Iowa caucuses are not secret ballots, but they do reflect deliberate choices made by thousands of party faithful in both parties across the state. Then, just a few days later, New Hampshire voters will vote in their first in the nation primary. The campaign now begins in earnest.

For all their importance, the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire will not determine who becomes the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. They will generate momentum, in varying degrees, for those who do well, and force those who do poorly to reevaluate whether they can stay in the race. All the candidates want to beat expectations and so will be careful in their statements to give themselves the best chance to later claim a victory of some sort.

Iowa appears to be a very tight race in both parties and foreign policy issues continue to play a role. Hillary and Obama have traded jabs in the past two days over the extent to which her years as First Lady give her foreign policy credentials. When Obama suggested that she mainly had tea with U.S. Ambassadors on her overseas trips, Hillary had a well-delivered riposte about a time she visited Bosnia under heavy security. Hillary’s advocates earlier attacked Obama for not having held any formal meetings of a Congressional committee on Europe that he began to chair in 2007.

Such issues will probably not be foremost on the minds of Iowa voters, but generally the issue of experience will be — for both parties. Candidates like Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani emphasize that they are “ready to lead” because of their experience, while candidates such as Obama and Romney declare that years spent in Washington are not necessarily the best attributes for a presidential candidate. For example, Romney’s latest attack on McCain takes this tack.

Apart from stands on the issues, voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and the rest of the country are wrestling with how much and what kind of experience the next U.S. President should have. Huckabee’s misstatements on Pakistan this past week may give voters pause in this regard. From now on, candidates will need to show that they have enough relevant federal and international experience, but haven’t somehow been tainted by it. This seems to be the voters’ expectation, if not the candidates’.