The Great Debates
Today and tomorrow, finally, the Great Debates. The losers of the last two primaries — Rudy Giuliani in Florida and John Edwards in South Carolina — today formally withdraw from, respectively, the Republican and Democratic fields, leaving only John McCain, Mitt Romney and a struggling Mike Huckabee on the Republican side, and Hillary and Barack as the remaining Democrats.
The three-man Republican debate this evening takes place in the suburban enclave of the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, while the Clinton-Obama showdown is at the Kodak Theatre in the center of the huge Los Angeles metropolis.
The timing and surroundings could not be more appropriate — or dramatic. John McCain’s win in Florida yesterday capped a long march to the head of the Republican pack by the self-described “footsoldier” of the Reagan Revolution. The win was not a landslide, as McCain modestly acknowledged, but it was convincing. Only registered Republicans could vote. Romney spent ten times as much as McCain on advertising. Giuliani spent far more time in the state. But McCain led every significant category of voters — conservatives, age categories, critics of Bush, self-described evangelicals. In fact, the disparities within the group that voted for McCain yesterday lead inescapably to the the conclusion that Floridians were voting for the man, and not his policies. Like the popular Florida governor, Charlie Crist, voters in Florida may not have agreed with McCain’s stands on immigration or tax cuts, but they respected his integrity and patriotism. Talk about a Comeback Kid! Last fall, Giuliani was at the top of the national polls and McCain was in single digits and broke. Now Giuliani is set to campaign for McCain.
Most interestingly, Florida Republicans also thought McCain was the most electable. This was not a vote prompted by fervent ideology or narrow political calculation. It was an affirmation of their respect for the man.
Now McCain is clearly the front-runner for the Republican nomination and his advantages are suddenly numerous. His credibility on Iraq gives him support among national security Republicans; his political base is fixed in the red states, his maverick stands are easier to respect than Romney’s changed views on social policy, and with Florida’s 57 convention delegates now committed to him, McCain has momentum going into Super Tuesday next week. Ironically, he now has the advantage of money too, because those looking for a Republican campaign to support have no where else to go. The financial reports for Romney’s largely self-financed campaign will come out this week and will show very little return on investment. Not a very good sign for the man who touts his business and financial acumen — but a very good one for the man who admits there’s a lot about the economy that he doesn’t understand.