Election 2008

LAS VEGAS — In the closely contested race for the Democratic nomination, two vastly different votes this Saturday — in South Carolina and Nevada — are clearly critical.  Officially, South Carolina-born John Edwards is still in the race, but his comments and his support seem to moving toward Barack Obama.  Here in Nevada, holding its first-ever caucus, Obama has the same advantage he had in Iowa — caucus participants whose candidate fails to garner 15 percent support at a given caucus meeting can vote for a second choice.  Edwards supporters may end up throwing their support to Obama.  Another key advantage is that Nevada voters can register to vote — or even change their party affiliation — on caucus day.  This plays to Obama’s advantage among independents.  Meanwhile, in South Carolina, which has been holding a presidential primary since 1980, Obama’s advantage appears to be the large African-American population.
But the biggest factor may well be age — or more precisely, youth.  Some first-time voters this year were still in junior high school when Bill Clinton left the White House.  The successes and failures of the Clinton White House — and Hillary’s role in them — are only dimly perceived.  What resonates among this youthful cohort is Obama’s youth and not Hillary’s experience.   The small army of young volunteers now combing Nevada to get supporters to the caucus on Saturday — along with the Culinary Workers Union members that man the gigantic casinos downtown — are Obama’s chief organizers here.  How well they turn out the youth vote may determine the outcome of this momentous contest.

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