Primary Colors
No one has convincingly explained the remarkable discrepancy between the New Hampshire polls that predicted a comfortable win for Barack Obama, and the primary results that gave Hillary Clinton a 7,000 vote victory. Some media said it was Hillary’s teary-eyed moment on election eve that garnered her added support. Robert Novak and a few others speculated that overwhelmingly white New Hampshire had second thoughts about voting for an African-American. The Economist wondered whether independents may have decided to vote in the Republican primary when it appeared that Obama had the Democratic race well in hand.
The real reason/s may never be clearly understood, but the results are unmistakable. By calculation or accident, Hillary has new momentum and money and Obama is under pressure to produce wins in Nevada and South Carolina on January 19th — the only Democratic votes before the massive, 21-state raft of primaries on February 5.
Also, the only remaining Democratic candidate with a resume emphasizing foreign policy — New Mexico Governor and former UN Ambassador Bill Richardson — has dropped out of the race. This could help Obama a bit in Nevada, where a growing Hispanic population might be expected to favor Richardson. In Iowa, Richardson allowed his caucus supporters to list Obama as their second choice. Could he again assist Obama behind the scenes?
John Edwards and Barack Obama’s fates are now linked: Obama’s best chance of beating Hillary on Super Tuesday is if Edwards does poorly in South Carolina (his birthplace) and Nevada and then decides to drop out. Edwards’ supporters would probably turn to Obama, just as Edwards himself demonstrably supported Obama against Clinton in last Saturday’s televised debate. This cannot for tactical reasons be discussed by either man or their followers. (Edwards’ defense of Obama during the last debate provoked some sympathy for Clinton.) Nonetheless, it may well become apparent in the next two weeks that the only way for Clinton not to become the Democratic candidate is for one of her two remaining opponents to drop out of the race.
A handy little graphic in the Wall Street Journal tells the primary story better than most of the analyses. We are in the end game quite early on both the Democratic and Republican sides. If, on the Republican side, Mitt Romney cannot win in Michigan on Jan. 15, he probably cannot become the Republican nominee. Ditto for Giuliani in Florida on Jan. 29. That would narrow the Republican race to McCain vs. Huckabee — a choice no one would have predicted just two weeks ago.