The Surge
Of all the televised debates in this campaign marathon, Saturday night’s double-barreled shootout in New Hampshire may have been the most important and revealing. First Republicans, then Democrats, took the stage and were questioned by ABC-TV. The questions were familiar – immigration, Iraq, nuclear proliferation, health care, education and the economy – as were the answers, for the most part.
What was different were the strategy, tactics and intensity of the exchange.
With only two days left before the New Hampshire vote, and as many as 40 per cent of likely voters saying they are still undecided, the stakes were exceedingly high.
Several candidates knew – Romney in particular – that a poor showing on Tuesday could derail their campaigns entirely.
According to Facebook, a co-sponsor of the debates, nearly half of those who commented on line said that they came away with clearer notion of whom they would vote for.
So how did the candidates do, and what was the foreign policy relevance?
On Iraq, the separate candidates’ panels sharply debated the value of last year’s “surge” of 30,000 added U.S. troops. For Republicans (except Ron Paul), the necessity and efficacy of the surge were demonstrably clear – the debate was over who had properly supported the move. For the four Democrats – Clinton, Obama, Edwards and Richardson – the surge was a failure because it had not lead to political consensus among Iraqi factions.
ABC’s moderator, Charles Gibson, also asked the Democratic panel to discuss possible nuclear terrorism. After several days’ campaigning, during which Iraq and national security issues had taken a back seat to the economy (now the most important issue for voters), this was a useful step. Obama appeared to ably defend his position that were the U.S. faced with an imminent threat from Al-Qaeda in Pakistan, and were the Pakistanis unable or unwilling to take action on their own, the U.S. should act militarily. This stated willingness to use military force internationally, under certain proscribed circumstances, will be revisited later in the campaign, especially if Obama’s own “surge” – of popularity – continues.