What to Watch in Iowa
It is only hours away from the first caucuses of the nominating process, and all eyes are on Iowa; the first real trial in the campaign. Never mind that Iowa is only the first in a rapid succession of tests for the candidates, campaign spending is record-breaking; some estimates show nearly $400 per caucus-goer. In keeping with the spirit of the media and campaign frenzy, the following are some of the noteworthy issues to watch on January 3rd.
- On the Democratic side, the race is tight between Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. What will be even more significant than the victor among the top three, will be the support that each of the so-called second tier candidates receive. The sequence with which they fall behind the leaders will send an early sign to supporters and donors, which will begin a trickle effect leading to some candidates’ retirement from the race.
- Estimates say that only 5 percent of caucus-goers were undecided as of the 2nd. Although they are few, what independent voters do in Iowa is a sign of how indies will vote in the rest of the country and in New Hampshire, the next primary on the docket.
- Mike Huckabee has made a comeback due in large part to his support from evangelical Republican voters. Will their voting power be strong enough to overtake the conservative Mitt Romney in the caucuses?
- John McCain had nearly given up on Iowa just a few weeks ago. Then, he received several high profile endorsements from major papers in the state and, suddenly, he was back in the mix. While he’s been focusing much of his efforts in New Hampshire, a good showing in Iowa could do wonders for the McCain campaign in other midwestern and western states.
While Iowa may be first, it’s certainly not the last state that matters, and after this evening, there will be much more to come. Iowans have to be relieved that after tomorrow the media blitz will cease, but for the politicos watching the show is just getting started.