E Day
San Francisco – The local elections held yesterday in many communities scattered across the United States are a useful reminder of the American adage that “all politics is local.” As Erin points out in her post below, a Republican governor was re-elected (Mississippi) and another defeated (Kentucky) for very specific local reasons.
In Virginia, meanwhile, Democrats won control of the state senate – partly, an affirmation of local trends.
Since I moved from Virginia to San Francisco two years ago, I have a vivid impression of how different local politics are across the United States.
Here in San Francisco, origin of the Republican epithet “San Francisco values,” our mayor was re-elected yesterday without opposition, despite a scandal in his personal conduct earlier this year that would have caused most U.S. communities to turn against him.
These differing local values complicate the national campaigns of the candidates for both the Republican and Democratic Presidential nominations. Republicans in South Carolina have different priorities from those in New Hampshire, and Democrats in Iowa often have different perspectives from those in California.
With our Presidential E-Day – Election Day – just one year away, the candidates are now struggling to win the hearts and minds of primary voters in specific state environments without contradicting their “national” message. This was Hillary Clinton’s problem last week when she was asked about drivers’ licenses for illegal immigrants, a proposal favored by most Democrats in New York, but unpopular at the national level.
For the next sixty days, we can expect to see candidates trying to calibrate their statements on national and international issues in light of the viewpoints of voters in Iowa, Michigan and New Hampshire – the first three states with official primaries or party caucuses. Not an easy task, given that national debates and polls will be conducted at the same time. Add to this the fact that the major candidates have to speak at fund-raisers in the major media markets, the chances are great that many will be caught in contradictions – a “gotcha” moment, as Hillary puts it.
For all the recent talk about the races being boring or predictable, we’re looking at a very volatile period ahead. A week ago, no one would have predicted that Hillary would take a major dip in a national poll, or that niche candidate Ron Paul would raise a record $4.2 million in one day on the Internet.
All politics may still be “local,” but that definition could be about to change.